David Calling - National Review OnlineViolence is spreading incrementally throughout the Arab world, with repercussions in Iran and Turkey. Plainly something big, something that could be historic, is at hand. The world, the “international community” that is such a figment in the speeches of President Obama, does not know how to interpret this violence, and even less how to react to it. Not so long ago Colonel Qaddafi was an honored guest in Western capitals, and Western air strikes on Libyan military installations were unimaginable.
The root of the trouble seems obvious enough, namely that every Arab state is a despotism. Arab kings and presidents are nowhere ruling with the consent of the ruled. All alike depend on their police and security apparatus. Fear and the absence of freedom stifle creativity and choke progress in every respect. People are frustrated enough to be permanently close to insurrection, and their rulers are likewise permanently prepared to oppress. Even quite small crises therefore have the seeds of violence.
The present unanimous demonstration of Arab unhappiness may have some copy-cat aspect, but it is impressive: All want their rulers out and a different life. Rulers have little leeway in responding. The Saudi king is attempting to buy his subjects off with handouts of billions of dollars. Less wealthy, the Algerian, Moroccan, and Jordanian rulers are offering subsidies for food and fuel. Since the people are asking for justice, money is here more of a placebo than a remedy. As the stakes rise, the ruler has to decide what degree of violence will preserve his rule. For every one of them, that is a test of character intimately connected to the reliability of the police and security apparatus. The systemic defect of despotism could hardly be clearer.
The ruler of Tunisia flunked. The ruler of Egypt tried to survive through cunning but his military colleagues wouldn’t let him get away with it. The rulers of Bahrain and Yemen are calibrating how much violence is needed to keep control; small numbers of the dead may be enough. The ruler of Syria began by bribing his people, but in the face of their desperation he is preparing for the bloodbath that may occur any day now. Carrying the logic of despotism to the bitter end, Qaddafi will either kill enough people to subdue the population and baffle the West, or be killed. We’ve been here before. Invading Iraq, President George W. Bush installed a rule that has the consent of the ruled. However long and difficult, that’s how to be rid of despotism. Reluctantly, almost accidentally, Obama could introduce in Libya the pluralism Bush deliberately gave Iraq. That’s marvelously ironic, or maybe the course of history is determined after all.
Of course there is some humbug in the air as well. Those disappointed people have suddenly discovered that the United States is not going to be looking after them and they will be on their own. Europeans and Asians have devoted so many of their resources to creature comforts that they are not in a position to protect their peace and security. It’s a shock that Obama is the one leaving them to be self-sufficient, a condition to which so many have been unaccustomed for so long.
A White House deputy by the name of Ben Rhodes has explained that the Obama conception of the U.S. role in the world is “to work through multinational organizations and bilateral relationships to make sure that the steps we are taking are amplified.” (You don’t “amplify steps” unless you are trying to be misleading, but let that pass.) This multinational and bilateral stuff is just that — stuff — a recipe for inertia, arenas for self-important diplomats in which to generate hot air, to propose meetings and postpone them, to pass resolutions watered down until they are meaningless.
The Libyan tragedy illustrates this higher vacuity. Institutions designed for the multilateral and the bilateral, the Security Council, the European Union, the Arab League, daily prove that they serve no useful purpose. Worse, while they posture among themselves, Moammar Qaddafi and his thugs have been allowed to massacre those asking for their rights. That is the direct consequence of Obama’s decision that the United States no longer entertains an independent foreign policy but leaves everyone, including the likes of Qaddafi, to do as they please.
Shame is one aspect of it, and the surrender of the West is another. Qaddafi has a long record of terror. Once he has committed enough mass-murder to stay in power, he can take revenge by brandishing oil contracts as blackmail, restarting his nuclear program, joining forces with the al-Qaeda or other Islamists he pretends are his enemies, and much else. Obama’s refusal to commit the United States over Libya has given Qaddafi an international Get-Out-of-Jail card. First disappointment, then danger.
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