Looking Back at the Tea Leaves on Cantor | National Review Online
Eric Cantor’s loss is historic. No sitting House majority leader has lost an election since the office was created in 1899. While Cantor’s loss was a stunning surprise, the warning signals were around for a while:
1. Cantor managed to muddle his message on immigration. His direct-mail pieces claimed he was foursquare against amnesty. But the newspapers covering Washington, D.C., quoted him as saying he was seeking a compromise with President Obama on immigration. Voters resolved the seeming contradiction by deciding to vote out their establishment congressman. Cantor’s loss destroys any chance of a comprehensive immigration bill passing the House this year.
2. The majority leader outspent his opponent, David Brat, by $5 million to $120,000. Much of that money went to negative ads ...
3. Cantor was also hurt by a subterranean campaign by Democrats ...
4. Many constituents of Eric Cantor felt he had ignored them for years...“He did one thing in Washington and then tried to confuse us as to what he did when he came back to his district,” one Republican primary voter told me.
And, looking forward:
5. In theory, Cantor could run as a write-in candidate in the November election, but that is highly unlikely. …
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