Under the Gun - Dave Kopel - National Review Online
Where are the most important opportunities and dangers for the Second Amendment in the congressional and gubernatorial races? Here’s a state-by-state rundown, including every gubernatorial and U.S. Senate election, plus all of the U.S. House races that Stuart Rothenberg does not classify as safe.
To summarize: The three gubernatorial races that are close and that feature major differences between the candidates on Second Amendment issues are Washington, Montana, and New Hampshire.
In the Senate, gun owners start off with a guaranteed gain of three seats on Election Night, regardless of which party wins, in Indiana, New Mexico, and North Dakota. In four states — Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Virginia — there are serious risks that seats could be taken by new senators hostile to gun rights. Plausible opportunities to gain seats for the Second Amendment exist in Maine, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. In these eight swing Senate states considered together, the possibility of a net loss probably exceeds the possibility of a net gain.
As for the U.S. House, a rough estimate would be that if the net gain for Democrats is x, then the net loss for gun owners will be about one-half or two-thirds of x. In swing districts, most candidates are unwilling to forgo the 5 percent of the vote that can be lost by opposing Second Amendment rights. So, in these districts, candidates of both parties tend to support the Second Amendment. Thus, the net change in House composition on the gun issue tends to be smaller than the net party change in any given year.
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